Description

This analysis provides a forecast of VET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-05-25 0.018291 0.020738 0.023396 0.026499 0.030023 0.033902 0.038500
2025-06-01 0.014508 0.017884 0.021872 0.026935 0.033200 0.040710 0.050413
2025-06-08 0.012172 0.015878 0.020511 0.026739 0.034909 0.045288 0.059516
2025-06-15 0.010900 0.014895 0.020127 0.027499 0.037647 0.051173 0.070649
2025-06-22 0.009357 0.013304 0.018685 0.026578 0.037905 0.053639 0.077275
2025-06-29 0.008303 0.012233 0.017785 0.026228 0.038805 0.056936 0.085234
2025-07-06 0.007283 0.011081 0.016622 0.025331 0.038749 0.058757 0.091091
2025-07-13 0.006890 0.010804 0.016693 0.026240 0.041424 0.064804 0.103853
2025-07-20 0.006485 0.010461 0.016615 0.026883 0.043710 0.070406 0.116393
2025-07-27 0.006168 0.010217 0.016656 0.027697 0.046309 0.076688 0.130577
2025-08-03 0.005685 0.009656 0.016128 0.027514 0.047225 0.080261 0.140502
2025-08-10 0.005285 0.009191 0.015712 0.027469 0.048341 0.084227 0.151414
2025-08-17 0.004843 0.008624 0.015088 0.027030 0.048774 0.087122 0.160840
2025-08-24 0.004581 0.008349 0.014946 0.027431 0.050740 0.092897 0.176094
2025-08-31 0.004254 0.007927 0.014502 0.027233 0.051575 0.096669 0.187911
2025-09-07 0.004097 0.007802 0.014581 0.028007 0.054286 0.104134 0.207515
2025-09-14 0.003725 0.007239 0.013800 0.027070 0.053614 0.105085 0.214312
2025-09-21 0.003464 0.006864 0.013341 0.026713 0.054038 0.108177 0.225683
2025-09-28 0.003160 0.006381 0.012635 0.025799 0.053253 0.108778 0.231920
2025-10-05 0.003089 0.006358 0.012828 0.026725 0.056316 0.117443 0.256040
2025-10-12 0.002992 0.006273 0.012890 0.027380 0.058864 0.125243 0.279012
2025-10-19 0.002917 0.006228 0.013030 0.028209 0.061851 0.134217 0.305426
2025-10-26 0.002751 0.005975 0.012713 0.028024 0.062598 0.138399 0.321360